If evidence of this was needed, just look at last summer. The pictures splashed across the media of towns and villages under water in the middle of July are hard to forget. In fact, provisional figures suggest that summer 2007 was the wettest on record.

You could be forgiven for thinking this was disastrous for take-home ice cream's performance. And yet, despite the inclement weather, the category was only down 1.9% last year [Nielsen, December 2007] to a value of just under £610m, testimony to the work that suppliers have done in making their products suitable for year-round consumption.

David Taylor, sales and marketing director at Fredericks Dairies, agrees that, unlike the impulse market, take-home is not as reliant on a good summer as it once was. "People still buy ice cream and eat it in the home - whether it's raining or sunny," he says.

Despite the fact that the hand-held/impulse ice cream market is worth over £242m, its decline of 12.9% over 2006 shows how reliant this sector is on good weather to drive sales. Ice lollies were hit the hardest by the poor weather of 2007, with a decline of 15% [Nielsen, December 2007].

Driving the value in take-home has been the continuing trend towards premiumisation and high levels of innovation by some of the category's leading players. Health has also played a role.

The fact that consumers are prepared to pay more for their ice cream as they look for a special indulgence - rather than an everyday treat - and has made luxury ice cream the jewel in the category's crown.

Luxury ice cream is now viewed by consumers as a permissible treat. The growing health trend means that traditional snacks, small treats and desserts are increasingly falling off consumers' shopping lists. Conversely, this is fuelling the desire for 'special treats' such as Häagen-Dazs, Ben & Jerry's, Green & Black's and Cadbury ice cream products. Sales of luxury ice cream have topped £100m for the first time and the category achieved growth of 13.4% [IRI, November 2007] in the most recent 12-month period. This was well ahead of total ice cream.

The beauty of luxury ice cream brands for retailers is that, because of their link to treating, they are year-round earners. Approximately half of Häagen-Dazs brand sales, for example, are generated in the winter months. Andy Foweather, sales director of General Mills UK, says: "The benefit of this is that a poor summer - like last year's - doesn't have a negative impact on sales."

Other manufacturers are looking at extending sales throughout the year. R&R Ice Cream, which owns the Skinny Cow brand, has been specifically identifying opportunities for winter sales, such as its After Eight dessert, by targeting Christmas occasions. "Our approach to development is firmly rooted in consumer thinking, following the major macro trends impacting the ice cream market, which are premiumisation and health," says Charlotte Hambling, senior marketing manager. "We are also focused on perfecting category management, ensuring our customers maximise the sales opportunities from the space they allocate and that they have the optimum range."

It might seem strange that the health trend is driving value in ice cream but, with many of the products positioned at a higher price point, it's a strategy that's clearly helping drive value in the sector.

Ben & Jerry's has had a successful frozen yoghurt business in the USA since 1988 and introduced the range to the UK in 2005. The category is now worth £5m, with Ben & Jerry's taking the biggest chunk of the 'luxury light' sector, at 53.2%. Its closest competitor is Skinny Cow, at 44.6% [IRI, December 2007].

"It's increasingly important to cater for consumers wanting a lighter option, so Ben & Jerry's is always concocting desserts that ease the conscience and tickle the taste buds," says Caroline Simpson, Ben & Jerry's UK brand manager.

Fredericks Dairies' David Taylor agrees health has started to gain more significance in ice cream. "We believe we are at the forefront with Del Monte, changing people's perceptions of what they can eat and still call ice cream."

New to the market this year is Del Monte's 100% Juice range, which is claimed to be the first branded range of fruit ices on the market to earn the Food Standard Agency's 5-a-day message. Meanwhile, since its launch in 2006, Del Monte Smoothies has captured a 46% share of the £14.3m iced smoothie market.

But, adds Taylor, it is still all about premiumisation. "Where previously an orange lolly might have cost 15p in a multi-pack, now you're paying 50p - but it's a far better product," he says.

Hambling agrees: "There is a growing trend in the healthier ice cream market because it fits within a consumer need.

"The products, such as Skinny Cow, become less seasonal and more of an everyday alternative snacking occasion, or a healthier yet indulgent dessert."

The problems of merchandising the frozen area are well documented. And, while out of stocks is a big issue for the whole frozen category, it is especially pertinent to ice cream - particularly when the sun shines.

"It's not the nicest area to work," says Taylor. "And, in ice cream, you only need sunny weather, particularly at a weekend, and it can wipe the fixture out."

He says it can be difficult for retailers to respond. "Last year, at some of its key stores, Tesco was keeping frozen vehicles outside ready for the products to go direct into store because it realised its supply chain couldn't cope with such a quick demand change. It will always be a challenge."

R&R has identified where retailers can make a difference to the profits from their freezer: by focusing on the availability of the best-selling brands, especially during the hot summer months; supporting the key campaigns; and clear and engaging signage in and outside stores.

"Retailers need to be aware that ice cream is seen as a snack during the hot summer months, and so it needs to be given the space and signage in-store that it deserves," says Hambling.

"Brand names are increasingly becoming a factor in the consumers' decision-making process, so stocking the best-selling brands is imperative."

General Mills UK says visibility and inspiration are fundamental factors for retailers when it comes to unlocking the potential of the luxury ice cream category.

Foweather says: "Applying a couple of straightforward merchandising principles can help drive growth. Showing shoppers where to buy and telling them what's on offer will generate impulse sales. This is easily done through signage and secondary displays.

"Sorting out the way the freezer is merchandised - keeping it tidy, clearly distinguishing between the different flavours and making sure the best-selling lines are always available - will enhance the shopping experience and drive category development," he adds.

As befits a category well known for new products, this year looks like being another winner for consumers and retailers, with a host of NPD planned by some of the category's leading players - much of it backed by heavyweight marketing and advertising.

Top of the list is Unilever. The company's Magnum brand is worth more than £75m [IRI December 2007] and enjoyed growth of 3% last year, despite the weather. A range of Magnum Minis is being launched this year, as is a new variant - Mayan Mystica - which is inspired by the ancient Mayan origins of chocolate. The company is also introducing the UK's first pro-biotic lolly into its Milk Time range, a Cornetto Minis range, a new Carte D'Or flavour and Carte D'Or sorbets. Its Ben and Jerry's brand will be introducing Baked Alaska and One Cheesecake brownie flavours and Jamaican Me Crazy and Mango Berry Swirl 500ml sorbets.

"We will continue to focus on driving frequency for ice cream, targeting new occasions and offering a wide choice of brands and formats," says Di Houldsworth, Unilever ice cream category director.

New products from Fredericks Dairies includes the Bassett' Jelly Babies Wobbly lollies, a product that Taylor "expects to win awards". Each lolly contains 25% real fruit juice, no artificial colourings or flavours and weighs in at 65 calories per stick.

At the upper end of the market, the company is introducing two Cadbury's square tubs as well as a Tate & Lyle Golden Syrup tub.

"We are keeping up our reputation for being one of the most innovative manufacturers out there: when it comes to NPD, we punch above our weight," says Taylor.

But, he adds, the company has recognised that consumers might have less money in their pockets this year.

"We've changed our marketing strategy a little," he explains. "Rather than relying on things such as high/low promotions, we'll have an element of everyday low price packs in the mix as well."

Meanwhile, new from R&R are Thornton's Ice Cream sticks and the Ribena Smoothie in the individuals category, and the introduction of Rachel's Organic in the take-home ice cream market.

"We will continue to invest in marketing in 2008," says Hambling. "As part of the overall R&R marketing campaign, all brands will be supported in 2008 with a £2m marketing spend. This will cover all areas of media support, point of sale, and in-store activity we are undertaking. Both FAB & Skinny Cow will continue to be supported above the line."n

TREND OF THE DECADE:?PREMIUMISATION

A noticeable trend in ice cream has been attempts to get shoppers to part with more cash for posh ice cream

Ask any supplier what the big trend of the past 10 years has been and they'll say it's that consumers are happy to pay more for what they perceive as 'premium' products.

Whether it's the rise of the cash rich/time poor consumer, or that shoppers just want to treat themselves, there's no denying that the past decade has brought an explosion of premium products, branded and own-label, that have put take-home ice cream firmly on consumers' shopping lists.

"People are having more exciting products put in front of them but they are paying more money for them as well," says David Taylor, sales and marketing director at Fredericks Dairies.

"There will always be a bottom end of the market, but if you look at where the growth's come from, it's products like Magnum, Ben & Jerry's and Häagen-Dazs, and ourselves with Cadbury and Del Monte."

"We've benefited from the growth in take-home ice cream - no doubt a corollary of the consumer move towards having a 'big night in'," says Green & Black's senior brand manager Natalie Brown.

Andy Foweather, sales director at General Mills UK, which owns the Häagen-Dazs brand, agrees: "Consumer behaviour is evolving and this is impacting on the way people shop the fixture. We identified the rise of 'treating' a few years ago but now we are seeing a definite premiumisation of the category."

He says consumers are not interested in having what they perceive as an everyday treat.

"They are now looking for a real indulgence as a reward for dealing with the growing pressures of 21st-century living," adds Foweather.

Charlotte Hambling, senior marketing manager at R&R Ice Cream, which is introducing a Loseley range this summer as well as a Swiss provenance line, has also noticed a "massive increase" in the super-premium sector. "In the last year alone, this sector has grown by 20%, helping to offset the overall market decline," she says.

"Basically it's the only sector not affected by the weather and fits a real consumer trend for premiumisation."

WHAT THE SUPPLIERS ARE SAYING

We've made a conscious decision not to 'panic promote' - preferring to invest in the brand's premium integrity by promoting occasionally and strategically. Multibuys work particularly well as a way of expanding consumption in this category, because essentially the more 'stock' the consumer holds at home, the more ice cream they will consume over a given period. Our ice cream is organic, and some argue this is even more important to consumers when it applies to dairy products. Dairy is often an entry point for consumers into organic, and the ice cream category is important to us as a brand for this reason. We'll be promoting this point of difference in display ads this summer.

Natalie Brown

Green & Black's senior brand manager

WHAT THE SUPPLIERS ARE SAYING

multiples is an all-year-round purchase, so you are not quite as reliant on the summer as was once the case. We could have another terrible summer but, on average, we're not likely to. It's unlikely to be as good as 2006, but we are expecting something in the middle. From a business perspective, suppliers tend to plan for an average summer - and react accordingly if it goes better or worse. What you do find is that if it gets too hot, people start to realise they're eating too much ice cream. You almost need some cyclical weather in there.

David Taylor

sales and marketing director fredericks dairies

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